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The 2023-24 NFL regular season is over and now the order of the first 18 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft is set. The Chicago Bears – thanks to a trade last offseason with the Carolina Panthers – are selecting first overall. The Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, and Los Angeles Chargers round out the top five selections in the 2024 Draft in that order.
USA TODAY’s Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz released an updated NFL mock draft 2024 with the new order after the regular season ended. Scenarios could change with a quarter of NFL teams looking for new coaches.
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There’s also a plenty of time between the mock draft’s release and the 2024 NFL Draft in late April for trades and prospects to rise and fall. One thing remains clear through mock drafts: prospects on offense will be drafted early and often, especially at quarterback, with multiple prospect jumping up the order.
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Quarterbacks Caleb Williams of USC and Drake Maye of North Carolina spent the six months as the presumed top two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. That hasn’t changed in this latest mock draft; it remains Williams at no. 1 to Chicago and Maye at no. 2, now Washington’s pick this April.
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But since the last mock draft a month ago, Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels of LSU has jumped from no. 21 to the third overall pick to make it three quarterbacks in a row at the top of the draft behind Williams and Maye.
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Daniels won the Heisman Trophy behind an incredibly prolific fifth year. He led the FBS in touchdown passes (40), yards per attempt (11.7), total QBR (95.6), and yards per dropback (10.9) in the regular season while throwing just four interceptions. He’s improved since his freshman season at Arizona State, especially in deep throw accuracy. Prior to bowl season, Daniels’s 62.6% completion percentage on passes of at least 10 air yards trailed only McCarthy.
He may not be a sure-fire top-three quarterback in the case of Williams and Maye but, as Middlehurst-Schwartz notes, change is coming in New England and Daniels has “a highly desirable package of traits.” He’s drawn comparisons to Tyrod Taylor and Deshaun Watson with his mix of athleticism and pocket passing.
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J.J. McCarthy jumps into the first round in latest mock draft
McCarthy, fresh off a national championship with Michigan, is another quarterback on the rise. He went from outside the first round in the last mock draft to the 13th pick, currently owned by the Las Vegas Raiders, in this latest one.
McCarthy has not yet declared for the 2024 NFL Draft but is expected to declare after winning the national championship over Washington. He doesn’t have the same numbers of the other quarterbacks projected in the first round – McCarthy’s 49 career touchdowns passes is only nine more than Daniels had in 2023 alone – but will likely be a first-round pick if he declares.
McCarthy was top-10 in the FBS in completion percentage (72.3), rating (167.4), and yards per play (8.1) in 2023. His mix of athleticism and arm strength is intriguing enough for a team to take a chance on him in the first round. Former New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins general manager Randy Mueller said McCarthy’s inexperience might give him a higher ceiling coming into the NFL given his physical tools and efficiency numbers.
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He’s received a wide variety of draft comparisons. Bleacher Report’s Derrik Klassen compared McCarthy to Zach Wilson while the Sporting News’ Crissy Froyd compared him to Andrew Luck.
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh seems bound for the NFL and could end up at a quarterback-needy team like the Raiders. If that’s the case, McCarthy could be just the second Wolverines quarterback drafted in the first round. Harbaugh was the first when Chicago drafted him 26th overall in 1987.
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Offense continues to dominate the top of 2024 NFL mock draft
Quarterbacks may be rising in the latest mock draft but offense dominates the top picks once again.
Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. remains the first non-quarterback off the board at no. 4 to the Cardinals. The Biletnikoff Award winner – given to college football’s top receiver every year – has been called “the best player in this draft” by The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner. He declared for the draft Thursday and will very likely be taken in the top five selections.
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Fellow wideout Malik Nabers of LSU led the FBS in receiving yards (1,569) ahead of bowl season and was tied for third with 14 receiving touchdowns. Nabers has the most receiving yards in LSU history ahead of the likes of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Odell Beckham Jr.. Nabers’ 2023 yardage total trails only Chase in 2019 (1,780 yards with two more games) and Josh Reed (1,740) in school history. He moves up in this latest mock to No. 5, currently the Chargers’ pick.
Top offensive tackles Joe Alt of Notre Dame and Olu Fashanu of Penn State move down due to Daniels and Nabers rising but the two stay in the top eight picks of Middlehurst-Schwartz’s mock draft. Alt is top-ranked tackle for a lot of draft analysts but it’s close between him and Fashanu for first tackle off the board.
The first seven picks of the latest mock draft are all offensive players. Alabama pass rusher Dallas Turner jumps up to the eighth pick, currently owned by the Atlanta Falcons, in this latest draft thanks to his athleticism and production for the Crimson Tide.
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Turner’s the only top-10 pick on defense in Middlehurst-Schwartz’s mock but it evens out from there. The remaining 22 picks are 12-10 in the defense’s favor and split evenly between defensive linemen and defensive backs. Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is the only new name on the defense for this mock draft, projected to the Los Angeles Rams at the 22nd pick.
Thirteen defensive players in the first round is relatively normal in recent history. The same breakdown between offense and defense happened in both the 2020 and 2021 NFL drafts.
USA Today’s Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz’s NFL Mock Draft
- 1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers) – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
- 2. Washington Commanders – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
- 3. New England Patriots – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
- 4. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
- 5. Los Angeles Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
- 6. New York Giants – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
- 7. Tennessee Titans – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
- 8. Atlanta Falcons – Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama
- 9. Chicago Bears – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
- 10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
- 11. Minnesota Vikings – Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA
- 12. Denver Broncos – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
- 13. Las Vegas Raiders – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
- 14. New Orleans Saints – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
- 15. Indianapolis Colts – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
- 16. Seattle Seahawks – Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State
- 17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Troy Fautanu, G, Washington
- 18. Cincinnati Bengals – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
- 19. Green Bay Packers – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
- 20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
- 21. Cardinals (from Houston Texans) – Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
- 22. Los Angeles Rams – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
- 23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
- 24. Miami Dolphins – Graham Barton, G, Duke
- 25. Philadelphia Eagles – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
- 26. Kansas City Chiefs – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
- 27. Texans (from Cleveland Browns) – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
- 28. Detroit Lions – Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
- 29. Buffalo Bills – Leonard Taylor III, DT, Miami (Fla.)
- 30. Dallas Cowboys – Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
- 31. San Francisco 49ers – Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
- 32. Baltimore Ravens – JT Tuimoloau, DE, Ohio State
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